​Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change: A Comparison of Approaches
Thursday, ​September 10, 2015
2:00 p.m. - 3:30 p.m. EST
Registration Link: ​https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/121642129

Overview: ​Climate change is already affecting species in many ways. Because individual species respond to climate change differently, some will be adversely affected by climate change whereas others may benefit. Successfully managing species in a changing climate will require an understanding of which species will be most and least impacted by climate change. Although several approaches have been proposed for assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change, it is unclear whether these approaches are likely to produce similar results. We compared the relative vulnerabilities to climate change of 76 species of birds, mammals, amphibians, and trees based on three different approaches to assessing vulnerability. We compared 1) projected shifts in species distributions to 2) an assessment based on expert opinion and projected changes in climate to 3) an approach based on the current and future climatic conditions within species’ current ranges. We found that the three approaches provided substantially different rankings of the species. Some species were determined to be highly vulnerable by one approach but only moderately vulnerable by the other two approaches. Only one species, the caribou, was consistently ranked in the top ten most vulnerable species by all three approaches. This is not entirely surprising given that the three measures assess different aspects of vulnerability and are based on different types of information. Nonetheless, these results are important because they indicate that more than one approach may be needed to adequately assess vulnerability—and that basing management decisions on one approach alone may lead scientists and managers to underestimate vulnerability.

Finding and using vulnerability information to inform climate change adaptation- Dr. Fisichelli

There's a bewildering amount of climate-related information out there! Where do you look? What do you use? Who can help? In this brief presentation, I’ll mention a few sources of vulnerability information, examples of how this information is being used for adaptation, and contact information of NPS Climate Change Response Program staff who can assist you in adapting your management to changing conditions.

About the Speaker​s​: Dr. ​Josh Lawler ​is an associate professor and Denman Professor of Sustainable Resource Sciences in the School of Environmental and Forest Sciences and the College of the Environment at the University of Washington. He is a landscape ecologist and conservation biologist driven by applied conservation questions and their real-world applications. He is most interested in how anthropogenic factors affect species distributions, population dynamics, and community composition at regional and continental scales. His research involves investigating the effects of climate change on species distributions and populations, exploring the influence of landscape pattern on animal populations and communities, and climate-change adaptation for natural and human systems. Some of his current work has begun to involve the field of conservation psychology—exploring how people make environmental decisions and what psychological benefits people gain from nature.

Dr. ​Nicholas Fisichelli ​is an ecologist with the Climate Change Response Program of the U.S. National Park Service. He works with national parks to understand climate change and related resource responses and to develop effective adaptation strategies. He creates and synthesizes management-relevant adaptation science, including climate change effects to forests, birds, park operations, and visitor use.

About the Webinar Series: This monthly climate change webinar series is presented by the NPS Climate Change Response Program. The purpose of the series is to connect NPS employees, volunteers, and partners with scientists and experts in the field of climate change research. The webinar series is a Service-wide forum where researchers can share credible, up-to-date information and research materials about the impacts of changing climate in national parks and provide participants the opportunity to engage with them in discussion.

Presentations begin at 2 PM EST, on the second Thursday of the month, and last about 90 minutes. They are viewed by logging into GoToWebinar on-line at the time of the presentation. Audio is available via a call-in number (toll charges apply) or through your computer’s speakers (free, but may be limited by connection speed).